The population of the world continues to grow, increasing demand for food, water and energy and placing increasing pressure on the environment. The population of the world doubled from 3.2 billion in 1962 to 6.4 billion in 2005 and is forecast to grow from 6.7 billion in 2006 to 9.2 billion in 2050. Fertility rates are dropping in developed countries. Migration could see significant changes in population compositions.

In most countries of the world, life expectancy is increasing, leading to larger populations of retirees who require pension and health benefits to last longer thus placing pressure on private and state social security systems.

In the sections below, we list some of the key statistics and developments for the two years prior to December 2007. To see how this fits into our global outlook, we refer you to our World overview. For more recent information, we suggest you refer to the MBendi Blog: Signposts to 2020.

According to the 2006 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects, the world is moving from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. The world population is forecast to grow from 6.7 billion in 2006 to 9.2 billion in 2050. The number of people over 60 in developing countries will rise from 8% in 2006 to 20% in 2050. HIV/Aids will cause life expectancy to drop in South Africa, Russia and the Ukraine.

Morgan Stanley calculates that 96% of additions to working age population between 2000 and 2005 were in developing countries. By 2050 the working age population will increase by one billion in the developing world and reduce by 100 million in the developed world. Median real wages are rising in the developing world, but declining in the USA.

According to the ILO, the rate of growth of Asian workforces is expected to slow as the % of the population under 24 years of age drops and the % of people over 65 grows. In developed Asian economies, more than 25% of population will be over 65 by 2015. In Japan more people have retired since 1999 than have entered the workforce.

In Algeria and Tunisia the fertility rate has dropped below 2 while in Gaza it is above 6.

Italy and Japan have the fastest declining populations and lowest birth rates in the world. Between 2005 and 2030, Japan's population is forecast to diminish by 9.8%, with the working population dropping by 12.9%. By 2015, 25% of Japanese will be aged 65+. Japan's birthrate fell below two children per couple in 1975 reaching 1.26 in 2005. OECD numbers for other countries are South Korea (1.08), Sweden (1.71), both in 2005, and the USA (2.04) in 2003.

According to Eurostat, fertility rates in every country in the EU in 2004 were below 2.0 with some of the former communist states recording rates close to 1. Ireland and France were the countries closest to a replacement rate of 2.1.

Currently 10% of China's population is over 65. By 2050, 25% of China's population will be over 65. 35% of the population of the Middle East is under the age of 16.

The World Bank reports that the share of migrants in the populations of high-income countries rose from 4.4% in 1960 to 11.4% in 2005. UN IFAD and Inter-American Development Bank calculated that migrant workers remitted more than US$ 301 billion to their home countries in 2006, much higher than the World Bank figure of US$ 207 billion. More than US$ 54 billion was remitted to Africa and the Middle East.

The EU justice commissioner urged the EU to provide channels to allow 20 million workers from Asia and Africa entry over the next 20 years. Currently 85% of unskilled labour goes to EU and 5% to USA, while 55% of skilled labour goes to USA and 5% to EU.

Between 1995 and 2004, net immigration into the UK was 2 million or 3% of the population. In 2004 it was 342,000. Caritas and Migrantes estimates there are 3.7 million foreigners in Italy, 6.2% of the population. Births to immigrant mothers in Italy were around 50% of those registered in 1995 to 2005.

A November 2006 IMF report shows 20% of people with tertiary education born in Sub-Saharan Africa are expatriates working in OECD countries. At the same time, remittances from expatriates to Sub-Saharan Africa home countries amounted to US$ 6.7 billion in 2005. Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa are the main recipients. In October 2006, an IMF report showed expatriate Africans remitted more than US$ 6.7 billion to sub-Saharan Africa in 2005. 30% of Lesotho GDP is from remittances.

In a speech to the Institute of International Finance in the USA, South African finance minister Trevor Manuel said migration of African health workers had led to a shortage of 820,000. According to the UN, 90% of highly skilled migrants live in the OECD. During the mid-1990s, there were 1.5 million skilled expatriates from developing nations in Western Europe, Japan, the USA and Canada.

The OECD forecasts that, despite pension reform in 16 of 30 OECD countries, retirement benefits in rich countries need to be cut by 15% to 25% and people need to work longer.

In 1960, there 16 workers per retiree in the USA; today there are 3 and soon 2. Nearly 80 million people in the USA born between 1946 and 1964 are expected to become eligible for social security over next 20 years. A report by Warren Rudman and Bob Kerrey found taxes would need to increase by between 33% and 50% by 2030 in order to provide existing level of pension and healthcare benefits. The US Congressional Budget Office predicts federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will rise from 8.5% of GDP to 15% in 2030 and 20% in 2050.

Making S&P 500 US corporations, of which 297 of 360 with pension funds are underfunded, properly responsible for pension gaps will cost them US$ 243 billion. US corporate pension funds are estimated to be underfunded by US$ 450 billion. The federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is underfunded by US$ 18 billion. By 2030, the USA will have to support twice the current number of retirees with only 18% more workers.

According to Ipsos, in the 2007 French presidential elections, 18 to 59 year olds who work and pay taxes voted overwhelmingly for Segolene Royal, while the over 60s overwhelmingly voted for Nicholas Sarkozy.

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