The population of the world continues to grow, as does the average standard of living, placing increasing pressure on the environment. Experts warn that world temperatures could rise significantly during the 21st century, leading to climate changes everywhere, unless governments, companies and individuals take corrective action soon. There is disagreement between developed nations, with a history of pollution, and developing nations, industrialising to improve standards of living, on the appropriate action to take.

Supplies of oil, gas, coal and uranium are forecast to peak as reserves are depleted. At the same time, fear of climate change is putting pressure on the energy sector to move away from carbon burning to nuclear, solar and other environmentally friendly energy sources. While food supplies have more than kept pace with rising population levels in the past, a combination of biofuels, rising standards of living and climate change are stressing agricultural production.

In the sections below, we list some of the key statistics and developments for the two years prior to December 2007. To see how this fits into our global outlook, we refer you to our World overview. For more recent information, we suggest you refer to the MBendi Blog: Signposts to 2020.

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A UN report predicts North America, Northern Europe and Russia will gain from global warming at expense of other regions. Everywhere, buildings and infrastructure will need to change. Drought, hurricanes and cyclones will increase. Plant pests and malarial mosquitoes will move to new areas.

The UK's Met Office predicts that the incidence of moderate drought will double to affect half the world by the end of the century. Extreme drought is expected to increase from 1% to 30%. A model developed by Princeton University researchers predicts that as winds move South with global warming, so the Southern Ocean will absorb significantly more heat and carbon dioxide.

EC scenarios forecast more Europeans dying of heat, less from cold, drought in the South, sea levels up one metre, more severe weather, migration of fish and animals, and no need to holiday on the Mediterranean. A UK report Africa Up in Smoke 2 predicts Africa will suffer more from global warming than any other region. The OECD estimates that 20 million Chinese will fall ill from respiratory diseases each year as a result of pollution.

The Carbon Disclosure Project, which monitors the greenhouse gas emissions of the Fortune 500 companies, lists the risks from global warming as physical risk from more extreme weather events; falling demand for energy intensive products and higher costs for energy intensive processes; tighter regulations to curtail greenhouse gas emissions; and reputational risk from perceived inaction.

The World Meteorological Organisation reported that concentrations of greenhouse gases reached record levels at end 2005, having increased by 2% pa for the previous decade. Unesco reported that the 3.2% rate of increase in emissions from burning fossil fuels between 2000 and 2005 was four times the 0.8% of 1990 to 2000. The World Meteorological Organisation reported that carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere reached record levels in 2006, climbing by 0.5%.

The EIA forecasts global CO2 emissions will increase 59% between 2004 and 2030, with 43% of the 42.88 billion tonnes coming from coal. 40% of the world's electricity is derived from coal and 20% from gas. Usage of coal is forecast to rise by 1.4% per year until 2030, with two thirds of demand coming from China and India. The DK Group estimates that shipping produces 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year versus 600 million tonnes by aviation.

EU emissions, excluding air travel, dropped by 0.7% in 2005 to 11% below 1990 emissions. The 15 original members of the EU have only cut theirs 2% below 1990. Germany has cut emissions by 18% since 1990, while Spain and Ireland have increased their emissions by 50% and 25% respectively. A UK / World Bank study shows Indonesia and Brazil as the third and fourth largest emitters of greenhouse gases after the USA and China as a result of the burning of the tropical forests.

The EIA forecasts that China will produce slightly more CO2 than the USA. The IEA predicts Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases could overtake those of the USA by 2008. At current growth rates, Chinese emissions could be double those of the rest of the industrialised word by 2030. During 1Q2007, Chinese rolled steel production increased 26.2%, aluminium 43%, ferro-alloys 44%, power generation 15.5% and car production 32% versus 1Q2006.

Chinese CO2 emissions are forecast to increase by 2.6 billion tonnes between 2006 and 2010 and by 7.4 billion tonnes between 2002 and 2030. China builds a new coal-fired power station every four days. During this period, the UK might reduce emissions by 310 million tonnes. Over the next 30 years the number of cars in China could increase 30 fold to 190 million and in India 13 fold leading to Asian transport CO2 emissions triple those of today. In China, dirty air causes 400,000 deaths per year, while 340 million people do not have access to clean water. In 83 Indian cities with air quality monitoring, more than 84% breathe poor, bad or dangerous air and only 3% good air.

The World Bank rates New Delhi, Cairo, Kolkota and Tianjin as the most polluted cities in the world. 16 of the 20 most polluted cities are in China.

NASA reported that Arctic sea ice shrank 14% between 2004 and 2005. Science reported that the melting speed of the Greenland ice sheet in those two years was triple the speed of the previous five. Temperatures in Southern Greenland have increased by 4.4 degrees F in twenty years. In January 2007, the Ayles Ice Shelf, one of six major shelves remaining in the Canadian arctic, broke away from Ellesmere Island. Danish researchers calculated that the arctic ice cap was 40% to 45% less than on average in the period 1997 to 2000 and the North Pole could be ice free in 15 to 20 years. University of Colorado scientists say small glaciers and ice caps have contributed most (400 billion tonnes pa) to rising sea levels, rather than polar ice cap melting (250 billion tonnes pa).

In 2007, Italy experienced its driest April for 200 years and introduced water restrictions, as did parts of France. As a result Italy could face a shortfall of up to 6,600 MW of electricity. Italian aqueducts lose 2.2 million cubic metres of water a year.

A UK report Africa Up in Smoke 2 predicts Africa will suffer more from global warming than any other region. Already temperatures are 0.5 C higher than 1905. In 2006, Namibian pilchard fishing ground to halt due to lack of fish. Instead jelly fish ate the fish eggs. Sardines also moved south and penguins, seals and sea birds died from starvation.

Research shows that between 1951 and 2000, India's extreme monsoon rainfall events became more common and moderate rainfall events diminished. In the 1980s South Korea suffered severe yellow dust storms 4 days per year; in the 1990s 8 days per year; in this decade 12 days per year. The dust comes from the Gobi desert. The economic damage from the yellow dust is estimated to be US$ 5.5 billion annually.

The average night time temperature in Los Angeles is 7 degrees warmer than 100 years ago. In 2007, New York recorded its hottest January day ever.

The January 2007 annual climate report of Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported the highest spring temperatures ever with average annual temperature 0.47 degrees above 1961 to 1990 average compared to 0.42 degrees globally. Of Australia's 20 hottest years, 15 have occurred since 1980. Although average Australian rainfall seemed normal, the country was unusually wet in the north and dry in the south. Drought in Australia reduced the size and quality of the 2007 wool crop to the lowest in 50 years.

The UN expert panel warned that the world has until 2020 to reverse the rise in emissions. The cost is expected to be US$ 1,500 billion per year from 2020 as well as US$ 20,000 billion on energy infrastructure before 2030. A report by Sir Nicholas Stern estimates that the cost of reducing emissions now at 1% of global GDP, while the cost of inaction will be 5% to 20% of GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change estimated it would cost US$ 200 billion per year to return to 2007 emission levels by 2030. To achieve this, US$ 148 billion needs to be invested in renewable energy, nuclear and hydropower and carbon dioxide capture and storage.

The market in carbon credits tripled from US$ 10 billion in 2005 to US$ 30 billion in 2006. Point Carbon estimates the global market in carbon trading rose 41% in 1H2007 to US$ 21.2 billion. The EU's trading scheme accounts for two thirds of trade.

In 2006, global investment in the clean technology sector was more than US$ 100 billion and, at current growth rates, could reach US$ 750 billion by 2016. GE doubled the sales of Green products over two years to US$ 12 billion.

The EU industry commissioner warns that Europe's move to green laws could make it uncompetitive. The European Commission proposed creating common criminal rules for environmental crimes. In February 2007, a split occurred between German and other European car manufacturers regarding proposed EU emission limits for cars.

IATA calculates that carbon permits would cost European airlines Euro 1.8 billion per year when introduced in 2011 and world airlines Euro 3 billion per year. In January 2007, the UK introduced an environmental levy on airline passengers. In December 2007, the EU agreed to delay plans to impose pollution charges on airlines to 2012.

In order to increase renewable's share of energy from 12% to 25 to 30% in 2020, Germany is introducing measures including subsidies for wind power and rules stipulating new or renovated houses must heat water using solar, geothermal or other renewable sources. The government estimates new measures would cost Euro 31 billion and generate energy savings of Euro 36.3 billion.

California introduced mandatory curbs on emissions from energy-intensive industries. The US Department of the Interior proposed listing polar bears as a threatened species.

In October 2006, the WHO issued stringent guidelines for air pollution which is estimated to cause two million premature deaths per year, more than half in developing nations.

The TUC claims clean coal, using super-efficient boilers and carbon capture and storage can reduce CO2 emissions by 90%.

Cyclope reports that between 2.5 and 4 billion tonnes of waste are disposed of worldwide each year, of which 600 million tonnes valued at more than US$ 100 billion is recycled. The value of the municipal waste market is US$ 120 billion and of industrial waste market US$ 147 billion. More than 60% of household waste comes from packaging.

Indonesian companies plan to replace jungle with biofuels plantations.

Footnote: If you are aware of any highlights we have missed, please contact us with details.