This summary was prepared by Whitehouse & Associates for the African Resource Network.
In trying to pinpoint the opportunities for increased trade, it is perhaps useful to look at export markets that have shown the highest rates of growth. These are in addition to current key trade partners such as Mozambique where trade continues to grow on an annual basis and the opportunities for South Africans are immense. The latest available full year statistics on which this analysis could be conducted are for 1998 and they reveal 15 markets as having the highest rates of growth in terms of the rand value of exports from South Africa. Some of these markets reflect growth off a very low base and are therefore not that interesting. Markets in this category are Burkina Faso, Togo, Senegal and Tunisia. While these markets do offer potential for certain niche products such as mining development in Burkina Faso, they are perhaps not going to be mainstream markets for South Africa.
Certain other countries have shown a decrease in trade on the January to November 1999 figures and one can assume that the increases of 1998 were perhaps based on one large order or project. A good example of how this can happen is with South Africa’s trade with Mali. When Anglo-America became involved in the Sadiola Gold Project in Mali. South Africa’s exports to Mali increased from R11 million to R121 million and have subsequently fallen back to R68 million. Countries where trade has decreased during 1999 are Sudan, Benin, Rwanda and Morocco.
The markets remaining that appear to offer good opportunities are Angola, Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia and Libya. Libya has been included because although this trade is increasing off a very low base, it represents a new market for South African exporters where, unlike other north African countries, South Africa does have some advantage as a result of the political relationship between the two countries.
In terms of import markets, the following countries have shown the highest growth in terms of the rand value of South African imports. They are Uganda, Mali, Madagascar, Ghana, Egypt, Sierra Leone, Benin, Seychelles, Reunion, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Cote d’Ivoire, and Mozambique. I mentioned earlier that the potential for imports from Africa had certainly not been realised and that there were areas for further growth.
Whitehouse & Associates is involved in a programme focusing on sub-regional trade expansion in Southern Africa that is currently being run by a United Nations agency, the International Trade Centre in the SADC region. The programme aims to increase exports from SADC to South Africa.
The rationale for the programme is based on a comprehensive study on sub-regional trade potential conducted by the ITC in March 1999. The study singled out products within SADC with sizeable theoretical export potential and compared these overlaps with actual SACU imports, in order to establish the extent to which actual trade potential had been realised.
A number of indicators such as growth rates in exports, competitiveness index, unit value index, stability graphics and trade control measures were examined to assess supply capacity within SADC and import patterns of SACU. The SADC export products were finally ranked according to the impact of the proposed tariff preferences under the SADC FTA on imports from SADC to provide insight into possible future trade generation. The results of the study showed that the leading 100 products highlighted by the statistical method offer a combined trade potential of US$790 million (R4,740 million). This figure is represents 2.5 times the current level of imports from SADC. The ratio of SA exports to imports would be reduced from the current 7 to 1 level to a more acceptable 3 to 1.
The perception exists amongst South African importers that Africa would not have anything to offer South Africa and yet the research undertaken by the ITC clearly shows that there are a range of products which SADC is exporting to the rest of the world, including markets in the European Union and North America, which South Africa is importing from outside of Africa. The ITC programme aims to highlight the opportunities for imports from SADC in a very practical manner and hopefully the result will be an increase in trade. The products that the study has shown are of particular interest fall into the following categories:
- Textiles and textile articles
- Prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco
- Live animals and animal products, especially fish and fish products
- Leather and articles
- Wood and wooden building materials
