While the world's workforce is growing apace, education systems are
failing to provide enough skilled professionals, artisans and managers to meet
demand, particularly for the mining, energy, construction and education
sectors. The income gap between rich and poor is growing. In the sections
below, we list some of the key statistics and developments for the two years
prior to December 2007.
In the sections below, we list some of the key statistics and
developments for the two years prior to December 2007. To see how this fits
into our global outlook, we refer you to our
World overview. For more
recent information, we suggest you refer to the
MBendi Blog: Signposts to 2020.
The IMF World Economic Outlook 2006 attributes better Asian economic
performance compared to Latin America and Africa to Asian investment in
physical and human capital and improvements in efficiency.
A survey by Manpower shows university educated professionals are in
short supply, particularly in Asia Pacific and parts of the Americas,
threatening economic growth. Germany's economics minister estimates that skills
shortages cost Germany Euro 20 billion per year.
Although China produces 600,000 university trained engineers each year,
a McKinsey survey of nine professions showed less than 10% employable by
multinationals. India's National Association of Software and Service Companies
estimates less than 25% of Indian engineering graduates and 10-15% of the
annual 3 million graduates is suitable for employment for employment in the IT
/ outsourcing sectors, which will experience a shortfall of 500,000
professionals by 2010. In the outsourcing industry, annual staff turnover is
40% and salaries are rising fast.
Simmons estimates 30,000 new staff will be needed to man oil rigs
currently under construction worldwide. Staff costs are rising at 8% per year
on average and by as much as 25% for some skills. In October, 2006 the Minerals
Council of Australia predicted the Australian mining industry would need to
increase staff levels by 76% by 2015, difficult to achieve with the shortage of
skills. South Africa's Centre for Development and Enterprise reported that the
average age of South African civil engineers is 53 and of artisans 55. Sasol
reported engineering and skills shortages worldwide were causing project delays
and budget overruns.
According to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, in
the next 15 years, 75% of US CPAs will reach or approach retirement age.
In a speech to the Institute of International Finance in the USA, South
African finance minister Trevor Manuel said migration of African health workers
had led to a shortage of 820,000. According to the UN, 90% of highly skilled
migrants live in the OECD. During the mid-1990s, there were 1.5 million skilled
expatriates from developing nations in Western Europe, Japan, the USA and
Canada. In South Africa there are 393 nurses and 74 doctors for every 100,000
people compared with 901 nurses and 247 doctors in the USA.
The UK has 7 million adults lacking functional numeracy and 5 million
lacking functional literacy.
The developed world increased spending on education by 41% between 1995
and 2004. An OECD report shows much of increase in education spending is
wasted. In 2004 55% of US spending was on teachers' pay as opposed to OECD
average of 63.5%. Non-teaching staff in the USA receive 25.5% of funds compared
to 15.5% in rest of OECD.
Norway, the USA and the UK have the highest public expenditure on
education as a percentage of total public expenditure. South Korea, Norway and
Japan have the highest population percentages with higher upper secondary
education.
According to the OECD, the number of students studying overseas has
doubled since 1995 to 2.7 million, with 22% going to the USA (down from 25% in
2000), 11% the UK, 10% Germany and 9% France. 25% of foreign PhD students in
the USA are from China. Of one million Chinese studying abroad since 1980, two
thirds have chosen not to return.
Between 1980 and 2000, the percentage of foreign born science and
engineering PhDs working in the USA increased from 24% to 37%. One third of new
PhDs in these areas is foreign born and one third of US Nobel Prize winners
between 1990 and 2004 was foreign born. In 2006, 27% of EU university graduates
obtained a degree in science or engineering compared to 24% in Japan and 16% in
the USA.
The USA produces 137,000 engineers per year and China 352,000. Only
1,000 civil engineers are being produced each year in South Africa and the
country is 13,000 short. Only 1,500 artisans qualify each year compared to
33,000 in 1975. India only produces 35 Computer Science PhDs each year compared
with 1,000 in the USA, about 25% of whom are of Indian origin. The World Bank
estimates India produces 7,000 PhDs each year in science, engineering and
technology.
Bangalore banned the teaching in English in government primary schools.
An IMF study reports that the effective global workforce has quadrupled
in 20 years and is expected to double again by 2050. Morgan Stanley predicts
that 96% of additions to working age population between 2000 and 2005 were in
developing countries. By 2050 the working age population will increase by one
billion in the developing world and reduce by 100 million in the developed
world.
Over the next 5 years India and China, currently providing 40% of world
labour, will add 71 million and 44 million workers. The US workforce will
increase by 10 million, Europe's will not increase and Japan's will reduce by 3
million.
The ILO's Global Employment Trends for Youth shows the number of young
people out of work grew 15% between 1995 and 2005. Young people are three times
more likely to be out of work than their elders. The population of young people
grew 13% but the number of jobs for them only grew 3.8%. 40% of European youth
are unemployed although overall unemployment in 2005 was 8.8%. Women are much
worse off than men.
According to SACTWU, over the past three years 46,000 jobs had been lost
and 174 factories closed in South Africa's clothing and textiles industry.
According to Statistics SA, between March 1996 and March 2007, 120,000 jobs
were lost in the industry.
In August 2007, the French government announced it would not replace the
22,700 civil servants who retire in 2008, splitting the savings between
increased wages and reduced debt.
The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects reports global income has
doubled since 1980, 450 million people have been lifted out of poverty since
1990, and average life expectancy in developing countries is 65. In January
2007, the ILO reported 195.2 million unemployed worldwide and 1.37 billion
people, 47% of total, working for less than US$ 2 per day.
Morgan Stanley reports median real wages are rising in the developing
world, but declining in the USA. An IMF study reports globalisation has reduced
the share of national income going to workers in advanced economies, with
record amounts going to profits. However productivity improvements mean these
workers are better off.
In January 2007, the Swiss Federation of Protestant Churches calculated
executive salaries compared to salary of employees had increased from 1:40
several decades ago to 1:500. According to the Economic Policy Institute, the
average CEO in the USA earned 821 times as much as the minimum wage. A
UNU-Wider study shows the world's wealthiest 2% of adults own more than 50% of
global assets. The richest 1% comprise 37 million people with assets of over
US$ 500,000. A December 2006 report showed talented managers are moving from
public to private companies for greater job satisfaction.
In September 2007, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics report Wages and
Bonuses in Investment Banking showed average weekly wages in the industry are
US$ 8,367 versus an average of U$ 841 across all sectors of the USA. In the New
York investment banking sector, the average weekly wage was US$ 16,849.
Investment banking accounts for 0.1% of USA employment and 1.3% of wages.
According to an annual survey, none of the higher paid public university
presidents in the USA earns as much as the head football coach of their
university.
Chinese managers are in short supply with some of the best now earning
more than expatriates. India's entry level salaries for programmers are half
those in the rest of the world but rising by 15% per annum. Gartner reported
that India accounted for 28% of global outsourcing workforce. Indian salaries
are increasing at 14% per annum, nearly double the rates of China and the
Philippines, and staff turnover is 25%. As a result countries such as Vietnam,
Brazil and China are starting to compete with India.
Relative living standards in Latin America have fallen so now average
per capita incomes are around 20% of those of the USA.
A UK Department of Trade study shows higher R&D correlates with
higher profits. Contrarily, a Booz Allen Hamilton study shows no clear link
between R&D and financial performance.
According to the OECD, China (US$ 136 billion), mostly development work
to adapt technology for China, overtook Japan (US$ 130 billion) and now ranks
second in spending on R&D after the USA (US$ 330 billion) and fifth in
number of patents filed. In September 2007, the OECD reported Chinese R&D
spending has increased by 19% annually since 1995. Most Chinese R&D is
focused on hi tech industries. The % of Chinese science and engineering
graduates has been falling since 2000. The Economist calculates Brazil spends
1.04% of GDP on R&D, Russia 1.28%, India 0.84%, China 1.31% and South
Africa 0.74%.
Britain's Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills reported
that the 1,250 top companies around the world invested US$ 510 billion in
R&D in 2006, 10% higher than 2005. US R&D spending rose by 13.4% and
was 40% of the total. Europe's rose 8% and China and India both recorded more
than 30% growth.
The ILO estimates that the US is the most productive economy labour-wise
at US$ 63,885 of value added per worker. Norway has the highest labour
productivity in value added per hour worked at US$ 37.99 compared to US$ 35.63
in the USA and US$ 35.08 in France.
Between 1987 and 1995, growth in GDP per hour worked in the old EU was
2.2% per year, versus 1.1% in USA. Between 1995 and 2006, GDP per hour in the
old EU increased by 1.4% versus 2.3% in the USA. With Europeans working fewer
hours than Americans, living standards stayed the same till 1995, but American
living standards improved more than EU standards thereafter. In 2006, the USA
recorded the lowest increase in a decade, while Asian and eastern European
productivity improved by between 4% and 10% per year.
Footnote: If you are aware of any highlights we have missed, please
contact us
with details.
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