The population of the world continues to grow, as does the average
standard of living, increasing demand for food, water and energy and placing
increasing pressure on the environment. The population of the world doubled
from 3.2 billion in 1962 to 6.4 billion in 2005 and is forecast to grow to 9.2
billion in 2050.
Supplies of oil, gas, coal and uranium are forecast to peak as reserves
are depleted. At the same time, fear of climate change is putting pressure on
the energy sector to move away from carbon burning to nuclear, solar and other
environmentally friendly energy sources.
Mined uranium ore is dissolved in sulphuric acid to produce uranium oxide which is then converted into uranium hexafluoride containing about 0.7% U-235. This is then fed through gas centrifuges thereby increasing U-235 levels to 3.5% to 5% and from this uranium dioxide powder is formed for insertion into the tubes making up fuel rods.
The rods are placed in a reactor where nuclear fission generates heat which is used in the turbines to generate electricity.
To date, the preferred technologies have been pressurised water
reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR). All nuclear reactors currently
in regular operation are thermal reactors, most of them light-water reactors
which can only fission 0.6%-0.7% of natural uranium:
- 264 Pressurised Water Reactors (PWR) located in the USA, France,
Japan and Russia and with a combined capacity of 250.5 Gwe. The fuel used is
enriched UO2 and the coolant is water and the moderator is water.
- 94 Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) located in the USA, Japan and Sweden
and with a combined capacity of 86.4 Gwe. The fuel used is enriched UO2 and the
coolant is water and the moderator is water.
- 43 Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors 'CANDU' (PHWR) located in Canada
and with a combined capacity of 23.6 Gwe. The fuel used is natural UO2 and the
coolant is heavy water and the moderator is heavy water.
- 18 Gas-cooled Reactors (AGR & Magnox) located in the UK and with
a combined capacity of 10.8 Gwe. The fuel used is enriched UO2 and natural U
(metal), and the coolant is CO2 and the moderator is graphite.
- 12 Light Water Graphite Reactors (RBMK) located in Russia and with a
combined capacity of 12.3 Gwe. The fuel used is enriched UO2 and the coolant is
water and the moderator is graphite.
- 4 Fast Neutron Reactors (FBR) located in Japan, France and Russia
and with a combined capacity of 1 Gwe. The fuel used is PuO2 and UO2 and the
coolant is liquid sodium and the moderator is none.
- 4 other types of reactor located in Russia and with a combined
capacity of 0.05 Gwe. The fuel used is enriched UO2 and the coolant is water
and the moderator is graphite.
New designs are being considered including EPR (Evolutionary Power
Reactor). Finland is constructing an EPR, France plans to build an EPR
demonstrator at Flamanville and the USA is preparing to build using several
designs including AP1000, ESBWR and EPR.
New reactor designs are being developed and tested capable of extracting
more than 30 times the energy from the uranium than today´s reactors. New
technologies plan to make use of thorium as well as spent fuel from current
nuclear reactors and the depleted Uranium stocks used for enrichment. New
Generation IV reactors currently being designed include Pebble Bed Modular
Reactor, VHTR (Gas Cooled), SFR (Sodium), Fast LFR (Lead), Fast GFR (Gas), Fast
MSR (Molten Salt) and SCWR (Steam Cooled).
Theoretically, a breeder reactor is able to fission about 60% of
natural uranium atoms via conversion into plutonium. The MIT study The Future
of Nuclear Power does not expect breeder reactors will come into operation
during the next three decades.
The first fusion reactor producing net electricity may be built around
2050. In November 2006, the Euro 10 billion Iter nuclear fusion reactor project
was given the green light.
Most nuclear power plants originally had a nominal design lifetime of
up to 40 years, but engineering assessments of many plants over the last decade
has established that many can operate longer.
The nuclear power design and construction industry is dominated by four
groups: Rosatom of Russia; Areva and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries; General
Electric (GE) and Hitachi; and Westinghouse which is controlled by Toshiba. In
October 2006, Areva and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced a joint venture
to produce 3G nuclear power stations.
In Kazakhstan, a joint venture with Russia's Atomstroyexport envisages
development and marketing of innovative small and medium-sized reactors,
starting with a 300 MWe Russian design as baseline for Kazakh units.
Nuclear power currently provides between 2.5% and 6% of all non biomass
fuel, depending on the source quoted. Nuclear power comprises 15.7% of world
electricity generating capacity including 30% in Western Europe, 19% in North
America and 17.5% in Eastern Europe, including Russia.
In the 1980s, 218 power reactors started up, including 47 in the USA, 42
in France and 18 in Japan. The average power was 923.5 MWe.
As of March 2008, there were 439 nuclear power reactors operating in 31
countries with 371,989 MWe total capacity and more than 11,000 reactor-years of
operating experience. There were 104 in the USA, 55 in Japan, 31 in Russia, 20
in South Korea, 17 in India, 11 in China and 200 elsewhere in the world. In
2006 they produced 2,658 billion kWh or 16% of world electricity generation and
consumed 64,615 tonnes uranium. Currently these reactors require about 67,000
tonnes of natural uranium per year.
Rising gas prices, greenhouse constraints on coal and concerns,
particularly in Europe, about energy security have led to a change of sentiment
about nuclear power which is increasingly seen as a more environmentally
friendly energy source than carbon.
It can take five years to plan, design and licence a nuclear power
plant and a further five years to build.
Resource Capital Research findings showed that planned and proposed new
nuclear power reactors worldwide increased significantly from May to August
2007. The main increases were from China with 114 planned and proposed new
nuclear power reactors announced, up from 63 in January 2007 (an increase of
81%); and the USA is up from 23 to 32 units. Russia has 25 planned and proposed
nuclear power reactors, the Ukraine 22, and India 19. This represents a global
demand for 304 new nuclear reactors, an increase of 37% in 7 months and an
increase of 99% from the number of planned and proposed new nuclear power
reactors reported in May 2006.
Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily but not
dramatically, with, as of early 2008, 35 reactors with a capacity of 28,798 MWe
under construction. Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, India,
Iran, Japan, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea,
Ukraine and the USA have all announced plans to build, between them, more than
100 new reactors with a combined capacity of 100,000 MWe. A further 228 with a
capacity of 198,995 MWe are under consideration. Most reactors on order or
planned are in the Asian region, a trend driven by growing electricity demand,
though plans are firming for new units in Europe, the USA and Russia.
Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading. In
addition, plant life extension programs are maintaining capacity, in the USA
particularly. In some countries, existing plants are being uprated by as much
as 30%.
The IEA anticipates at least 60 new plants producing 430 GWe installed
by 2020. This is 130 GWe more than projected in 2000 and 16% more than produced
in 2006. This would give nuclear power a 17% share in electricity production in
2020. By 2025, world nuclear energy capacity is expected to grow to between 450
GWe and 530 GWe from the present generating capacity of about 370 GWe. This
will raise annual uranium requirements to between 80,000 tonnes and 100,000
tonnes.
If the Nuclear Power Industry lives up to it's promises for modern, 3rd
generation plants, the total levelised cost of Nuclear Power including
contruction, operational, waste disposal and decommissioning costs is in the
range 3 - 5 cents per KiloWatt-Hour depending on the interest rate obtained for
the construction. Nuclear Power plants pay back the energy required to build
them in less than 2 months of operation.
Current world proven reserves of Uranium are sufficient to supply
current world demand for 50 years. Speculative reserves provide an additional
150 years of supply. The cost of Uranium Ore is a very small fraction of the
operating costs of Nuclear Power. Fourth Generation Nuclear Plants can fully
utilize all the energy in Natural Uranium. There is sufficient Uranium and
Thorium on Earth for Fourth Generation reactors to supply the total World
demand for energy for hundreds of centuries.
Some sources calculate that generating electricity from nuclear power
emits 20-40% of the carbon dioxide per KW hour of a gas-fired system. Nuclear
Power Plants emit significantly less greenhouse gases than fossil fuel
stations. Some CO2 emissions arise from the construction of the plant, the
mining of the Uranium, the enrichment of the Uranium, its conversion into
Nuclear Fuel, its final disposal and the final plant decommissioning.
The cost of nuclear power generation comprises three main components:
the design, development and construction cost; the operating cost, including
waste disposal; and the decommissioning cost.
The cost of uranium is a very small factor in the cost of running a
nuclear power station. Because of the cost structure of nuclear power
generation, with high capital and low fuel costs, the demand for uranium fuel
is much more predictable than with probably any other mineral commodity. Once
reactors are built, it is very cost-effective to keep them running at high
capacity and for utilities to make any adjustments to load trends by cutting
back on fossil fuel use. Demand forecasts for uranium thus depend largely on
installed and operable capacity, regardless of economic fluctuations. Nuclear
power plants are designed to be in service for more than 40 years with an
up-time of 90% or better.
The 2008 design cost is estimated to be in the region of US$ 1,500 per
KW capacity, with operating costs of around 2 US cents per KW hour. Models
estimate the total electricity cost as 3 to 4 US cents per KW hour.
Westinghouse estimates that the cost of a nuclear power plant in the USA is US$
18.60 per MWh, of which 25% is fuel related, compared to US$ 22.58 per MWh, of
which 77% is fuel related, for a coal-fired plant. In France, the use of a
standard design and sharing of knowledge between plants resulted in lower costs
than in the USA or UK where several standard designs were employed and
information sharing between operators was limited.
In many countries a charge is levied, based on the output of the plant,
in order to defray the cost of waste disposal and eventual decomissioning.
There is minimal agreement between countries on the cost of decommissioning.
Fast breeder reactors have a higher risk profile due to the need to
handle large quantities of Plutonium and electricity produced by such a plant
would cost several times that from conventional nuclear power plants.
Uranium-235, comprising 0.72% of natural uranium is the only fuel
currently used in nuclear power plants. Thorium-232 is a possible nuclear fuel,
while fast breeder reactors are planned that can use uranium-235 or
plutonium-239, which is created from the much more common uranium-238.
Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, jointly prepared
by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the IAEA, estimates that world reserves
of uranium ore that can be mined for less than US$ 130 per kg are some 4.7
million tonnes. Based on the 2004 nuclear power demand for uranium, this is
sufficient for 85 years. Fast reactor technology would lengthen this period to
over 2,500 years.
As of early 2008, the 440 nuclear reactors operating worldwide required
78,500 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate containing 66,500 tonnes of uranium
annually. Mines met 58% of demand in 2006 and 64% of demand in 2007, with the
balance coming from secondary sources such as dismantled warheads; government
and civilian stockpiles of uranium and plutonium; recycled uranium and
plutonium from spent fuel, as mixed oxide fuel; and re-enriched depleted
uranium tails.
Weapons-grade is about 97% U-235, and this can be diluted with depleted
uranium to reduce it to about 4%, suitable for use in a reactor. From 1999 the
dilution of 30 tonnes such material is displacing about 10,600 tonnes per year
of mine production. The USA and Russia have agreed to dispose of 34 tones each
of military plutonium by 2014. Most of it is likely to be used as feed for MOX
plants. Military and civilian stockpiles are now largely depleted.
It is estimated that each GWe of additional capacity will require about
600 tonnes of uranium at start-up and 195 tonnes uranium per year thereafter.
Over the 20 years from 1970 there was a 25% reduction in uranium demand per kWh
output in Europe due to operational improvements. By 2025, annual uranium
requirements will be between 80,000 tonnes and 100,000 tonnes.
In the uranium market, very high prices in the late 1970s, when many
nuclear power plants were built, gave way to historical lows of less than US$
22 / kg in the early 1990s, as the public became disillusioned with nuclear
power. In 1996 prices recovered to the point where most mines could produce
profitably, though they then declined again and only started to recover
strongly late in 2003. The price of Uranium then rose to a peak of over US$
300/kg in 2007 then declined to US$ 165 by early 2008.
The rise in prices has led to a flurry of exploration and a 50% increase
in reserves. Only 20% of uranium is traded on the spot market. Most sales take
place via term contracts between mining companies and power producers, giving
greater certainty to both, though the price generally reflects a premium above
spot price.
Note that at the prices which utilities are likely to be paying for
current delivery, only one quarter of the cost of the fuel loaded into a
nuclear reactor is the actual ex-mine (or other) supply. The balance is mostly
the cost of enrichment and fuel fabrication.
Major commercial reprocessing plants are operating in France and UK,
with capacity of over 4000 tonnes of spent fuel per year. The product from
these re-enters the fuel cycle and is fabricated into fresh mixed oxide (MOX)
fuel elements. About 200 tonnes of MOX is used each year, equivalent to less
than 2000 tonnes of U3O8 from mines.
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