Uranium (chemical symbol U, atomic number 92 and atomic weight of 238.03) is the only commercially produced radioactive mineral. Uranium is a highly reactive metal that does not occur in a free state in nature, commonly occurring as an oxide U3O8. Uranium occurs in its natural form as three isotopes (U238, U235 and U234). Uranium is present at an abundance 2 - 3 parts per million in the Earth's crust. Known reserves amount to about 85 years supply at the current level of consumption with an expected further 500 years supply in additional or speculative reserves.
The main uranium bearing minerals that are currently economically exploited are uraninite (UO2), pitchblende (a mixed oxide, usually U3O8), brannerite (a complex oxide of uranium, rare earths, iron and titanium) and coffinite (uranium silicate). Technologies are being developed to extract uranium from sea water where it exists at a concentration of approximately 3 parts per billion.
Uranium-235, comprising 0.72% of natural uranium is the only fuel currently used in nuclear power plants. Thorium-232 is a possible nuclear fuel, while fast breeder reactors are planned that can use uranium-235 or plutonium-239, which is created from the much more common uranium-238.
Uranium is also is used in the production of radioisotopes, which are used for the diagnosis and treatment of certain illnesses; examination of welds and the study of the rate of wear of metals; preservation of foods; and production of high-yielding, disease-resistant varieties of food crops. Uranium has uses in the manufacture of nuclear weapons, but this role has diminished considerably.
Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the IAEA, estimates that world reserves of uranium ore that can be mined for less than US$ 130 per kg are some 4.7 million tonnes. Based on the 2004 nuclear power demand for uranium, this is sufficient for 85 years. Fast reactor technology would lengthen this period to over 2,500 years. At high grades 99% of the uranium can be extracted from the ore while at low grades only half can be extracted.
Australia (36%), Kazakhstan (14%), Canada (13%), South Africa (9%) and Namibia (7%) together hold 79% of world uranium reserves.
Since 1985, demand has exceeded production. Mines in 2005 supplied some 49,000 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate (U3O8) containing 41,600 tonnes U. In 2006 uranium mining production was 46,720 tons and consumption 80,000 tons. 2007 mining production is expected to be 53,070 tons and demand 83,000 tons.
Mines thus met 58% of demand in 2006 and 64% of demand in 2007, with the balance coming from secondary sources such as dismantled warheads; government and civilian stockpiles of uranium and plutonium; recycled uranium and plutonium from spent fuel, as mixed oxide fuel; and re-enriched depleted uranium tails.
Weapons-grade is about 97% U-235, and this can be diluted with depleted uranium to reduce it to about 4%, suitable for use in a reactor. From 1999 the dilution of 30 tonnes such material is displacing about 10,600 tonnes per year of mine production. The USA and Russia have agreed to dispose of 34 tones each of military plutonium by 2014. Most of it is likely to be used as feed for MOX plants. Military and civilian stockpiles are now largely depleted.
Canada (24.9%), Australia (19.1%), Kazakhstan (13.3%), Niger (8.7%), Russia (8.6%), Namibia (7.8%), Uzbekistan (5.7%), the USA (4.3%), the Ukraine (2.0%), China (1.9%) and South Africa (1.3%) were the main primary sources. Both Canada and Australia saw big drops in production between 2005 and 2006, while Kazakhstan, which saw a 21% increase, plans to double uranium output by 2010, becoming the world's leading producer ahead of Canada and Australia.
China is building close ties with Kazakhstan. In November 2007, France's Areva signed an agreement with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation to provide 35% of the uranium output of Uramin, a Canadian company with operations in South Africa, Namibia and CAR over the next seven years.
Canadian uranium mining company, Cameco, is the largest uranium producer in the world. The Rossing mine in Namibia produced 3037 tonnes of Uranium in 2004, with a value of less than US$ 100 million per year. The mine has a Uranium concentration of 0.03% by weight.
A total of 26 countries generate more than 25% of their electricity using nuclear power plants.
As of early 2008, some 440 nuclear reactors were operating worldwide, with a combined capacity of some 363 GWe. These reactors require 78,500 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate containing 66,500 tonnes of uranium annually.
The cost of mining Uranium is a very small factor in the cost of running a nuclear power station. Because of the cost structure of nuclear power generation, with high capital and low fuel costs, the demand for uranium fuel is much more predictable than with probably any other mineral commodity. Once reactors are built, it is very cost-effective to keep them running at high capacity and for utilities to make any adjustments to load trends by cutting back on fossil fuel use. Demand forecasts for uranium thus depend largely on installed and operable capacity, regardless of economic fluctuations.
Demand will depend on new plant being built and the rate at which older plant is retired. Licensing of plant lifetime extensions and the economic attractiveness of continued operation of older reactors are critical factors in the medium-term uranium market.
It is estimated that each GWe of additional capacity will require about 600 tonnes of uranium at start-up and 195 tonnes uranium per year thereafter. Over the 20 years from 1970 there was a 25% reduction in uranium demand per kWh output in Europe due to operational improvements. New reactor designs are being developed and tested capable of extracting more than 30 times the energy from the uranium than today´s reactors.
By 2025, world nuclear energy capacity is expected to grow to between 450 GWe and 530 GWe from the present generating capacity of about 370 GWe. This will raise annual uranium requirements to between 80,000 tonnes and 100,000 tonnes.
In the uranium market, very high prices in the late 1970s, when many nuclear power plants were built, gave way to historical lows of less than US$ 22 / kg in the early 1990s, as the public became disillusioned with nuclear power. In 1996 prices recovered to the point where most mines could produce profitably, though they then declined again and only started to recover strongly late in 2003. The price of Uranium then rose to a peak of over US$ 300/kg in 2007 then declined to US$ 165 by early 2008. The rise in prices has led to a flurry of exploration and a 50% increase in reserves.
Only 20% of uranium is traded on the spot market. Most sales take place via term contracts between mining companies and power producers, giving greater certainty to both, though the price generally reflects a premium above spot price.
Note that at the prices which utilities are likely to be paying for current delivery, only one quarter of the cost of the fuel loaded into a nuclear reactor is the actual ex-mine (or other) supply. The balance is mostly the cost of enrichment and fuel fabrication.
There has been a boom in uranium exploration, owing to high oil and uranium prices and possibilities of disruption in energy supplies to Europe and North America.
Worldwide exploration expenditures in 2004 totalled over US$ 130 million, an increase of almost 40% compared to 2002, and were close to US$ 200 million in 2005. This can be expected to lead to further additions to the uranium resource base. A significant number of new mining projects have also been announced that could substantially boost the world´s uranium production capacity.
Major commercial reprocessing plants are operating in France and UK, with capacity of over 4000 tonnes of spent fuel per year. The product from these re-enters the fuel cycle and is fabricated into fresh mixed oxide (MOX) fuel elements. About 200 tonnes of MOX is used each year, equivalent to less than 2000 tonnes of U3O8 from mines.
| 
