In most countries of the world, life expectancy is increasing, leading to larger populations of retirees who require pension and health benefits to last longer thus placing pressure on private and state social security systems. The health care sector is also under pressure to provide more cost-effective solutions.

With 80% of deaths from cancer, heart disease and other chronic diseases taking place in low and middle income countries, demand for low cost medicines in developing countries is leading to conflicts with first world pharmaceutical companies determined to protect their intellectual property.

In the sections below, we list some of the key statistics and developments for the two years prior to December 2007. To see how this fits into our global outlook, we refer you to our World overview. For more recent information, we suggest you refer to the MBendi Blog: Signposts to 2020.

According to the 2006 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects, the world is moving from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. The world population is forecast to grow from 6.7 billion in 2006 to 9.2 billion in 2050. The number of people over 60 in developing countries will rise from 8% in 2006 to 20% in 2050. HIV/Aids will cause life expectancy to drop in South Africa, Russia and the Ukraine.

In July 2007, the OECD reported that per capita health spending increased by more than 80% in real terms between 1990 and 2005. This compares with a 35% increase in GDP per head over that time. In 1970, OECD health spending was 5% of GDP, while now it is 9% with the USA at 15.3% followed by Switzerland and France, both above 11%. Other studies show the US health system consumes 16% of GDP and grows at 6.4% per year. Europe provides universal high quality health care for half as much per capita. 48 million Americans have no health care cover.

In September 2006, the California Healthcare Foundation forecasts healthcare costs will rise from US$ 3.9 billion in 2006 to US$ 31 billion in 2020 due to inflation, longer life expectancy and an ageing population. Bad debts for US hospitals in 2004 were estimated to be US$ 26 billion or more, 12% of revenue.

A report by Warren Rudman and Bob Kerrey found US taxes would need to increase by between 33% and 50% by 2030 in order to provide existing level of pension and healthcare benefits. The US Congressional Budget Office predicts federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will rise from 8.5% of GDP to 15% in 2030 and 20% in 2050.

In February 2007, Indonesia blamed WHO for passing on samples of H5N1 bird flu virus samples to drug companies to make expensive vaccines

Worldwide, cancer kills more people than Aids, TB and malaria combined.

The number of children in the USA taking medicine for type II diabetes more than doubled from 2001 to 2005, largely as a result of increasing obesity.

In October 2006, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported new HIV/Aids infections in the EU rose 40% in five years, with 30% of those affected not aware of the infection.

Malaria kills at least one million people per year, 90% of them in Africa, and makes 300 million people severely ill per year.

In September 2006, the World Health Organisation released new policy guidelines on insecticide spraying for malaria control which included encouraging the use of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and DDT. USAID is funding IRS projects in Africa as part of the President's Malaria Initiative.

In 2007 Sanofi Aventis launched a cheap, easy to take artemisinin based combination pill to fight malaria which will not be patented. In October 2007 GlaxoSmithKline announces successful stage 2 tests of a malaria vaccine.

In March 2007, Abbott Laboratories announced plans to withhold new HIV drugs from Thailand because of that government's decision to break medicinal patents. In May 2007, Brazil overrode the patent on a key HIV / Aids drug, allowing sourcing of a generic from India. In August 2008, an Indian court dismissed Novartis' challenge to patent laws.

Footnote: If you are aware of any highlights we have missed, please contact us with details.